Home Loan Rates Face Jobs Data – ARCHIVE

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The Jan 7th, 2017 “New Jobs” and “Unemployment Rate” data is a potential market mover.  If the data comes in around 160k new jobs and 4.7% unemployment we should see the mortgage rate rally from 2017 week 1 continue on into next week.

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Some have called the 9 week post-election rate increase the “Trump Tantrum.” It reminds me of “Taper Tantrum” which was a 1 week rate jump in the summer of 2013.  Is an increase of $31.06 per $100k borrowed in a month and the increase of $13.33 per $100k borrowed from a year ago a “tantrum?”

Are Mortgage Rates Much Higher?

The media sells news.  Everything for sale should not always be bought.  Current mortgage rates are not far from where they were just 1 year ago.

Election Week 2016 to Today:

  • 5th of Jan: 4.20% (+ .63%) ($489.02 per $100k)
  • 29th of Dec: 4.32%
  • 22nd of Dec: 4.30%
  • 15th of Dec: 4.16%
  • 8th of Dec: 4.13%
  • 1st of Dec: 4.08%
  • 23rd of Nov: 4.03%
  • 17th of Nov: 3.94%
  • 10th of Nov: 3.57% ($457.96 per $100k)

1 Year Ago (Jan 6, 2016)

  • Jan 5th, 2017: 4.20% (+ .23%) ($489.02 per $100k borrowed)
  • Jan 7, 2016: 3.97% ($475.69 per $100k borrowed)

To sum it up, a rule of thumb for tomorrow is that better economic news supports higher mortgage rates while worse economic news supports lower mortgage rates.  Rule of thumb for calling anything a “tantrum” – not sure but saying “4….%” instead of “3….%” can’t be it!

By Jeremy House


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